AI需要でメモリ価格が5倍、Appleとメモリメーカーの力関係が逆転

"Surging demand from AI data centres has driven flash memory prices up fivefold over the past year, giving suppliers such as Kioxia greater leverage over Apple."

"Flash that cost $68 a gigabyte in 2005 had fallen to a nickel by 2023. Now, demand by the AI industry has lifted the price to more than 30 cents a gigabyte, a 550% jump"

"In the past year, demand by AI hyperscalers has quintupled prices for flash, according to research firm TechInsights, opening a new era for Kioxia and other suppliers. Two years ago, Apple bought nearly twice the flash storage of Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Google combined, according to TechInsights estimates. Hyperscalers are now buying double Apple’s share."

"His Japan-based manufacturer, Kioxia, had little leverage. Apple was the world’s biggest buyer of flash—the chips in iPhones that store photos, music and apps—and used its position to squeeze every cent from suppliers. Apple bullied flash makers into opening their books so it could monitor sales, making sure no one else got a better deal."／"“Apple has historically driven a very hard bargain with memory suppliers,” said Walt Coon, an analyst at TechInsights. “And there’s no shortage of satisfaction among suppliers now that the balance of power is shifting.”"／"“We’ve worked with many of our suppliers for decades, and we deeply value their partnership over the years,” Apple said in statement."

"Meta, Microsoft and Amazon signed contracts with Kioxia this year to secure long-term supply by committing to higher prices. The contracts protect Kioxia’s profits if the market turns. The company declined to comment."／"Flash storage is a smaller part of building a data center than making an iPhone, and accounting rules allow companies to spread the cost over years."

"The company has currently signed LTAs with 14 major customers, including leading global cloud service providers (CSPs), and is also proactively discussing with a number of customers the possibility of extending the contract terms, which are typically five years."／"The LTA volume secured to date corresponds to more than 50% of total production capacity for 2027 and 2028."

"Apple is expected to spend $25 billion on flash storage this year for about the same amount it bought for $6 billion in 2025, according to estimates by TechInsights."

"Buyers of the iPhone 17 Pro paid Apple $200 last year for double the storage of its 256-gigabyte base model. The extra storage at the time cost Apple $15 and has since shot up to $66, according to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal."／"Apple recorded an average gross profit of more than 80 cents for every dollar it charged iPhone and iPad buyers for extra storage since it first released those devices through 2025, the Journal found. For Mac computers sold since 2010, it averaged nearly 80 cents."

"Tim Cook, Apple’s executive chairman, compared escalating memory chip prices to a “100-year flood.”"／"Yet Apple had ignored analysts’ warnings and was caught off guard, said people familiar with the company’s procurement practices."／"Company executives believed they knew the market better than anyone else, the people said."

"In recent months, Apple raised prices for nearly all of its products. Prices rose an average of 13% for iPhones, an increase that included older models which typically get a price cut."／"“It’s been a love-hate relationship between Apple and the flash industry,” said Mark Newman, an analyst with Bernstein Research."

"Overall NAND Flash contract prices are projected to increase 15–20% QoQ."／"Bit demand for enterprise SSDs is projected to grow by more than 80% YoY in 2026 as CSPs continue to expand AI inference infrastructure."／"Enterprise SSD price growth is therefore expected to accelerate in 4Q26, making it the only memory product category to see a larger increase than in the previous quarter."／"For eMMC/UFS, smartphone brands—the primary source of demand—are largely relying on existing inventories to support fourth-quarter production, resulting in very limited incremental procurement from suppliers."

"Given technical difficulty of leading-edge processes and the long lead time required to build new production facilities, it expects the structure in which demand exceeds supply to persist through 2030."